Gold 2025

In April 2025 , gold once again attracted the attention of world markets , updating historical highs . Amid geopolitical instability , the US – China trade war and expectations of a change in monetary policy , investors are returning to the traditional asset . The cost of an ounce of gold exceeded the $3,300 mark, and in April reached an unprecedented $35,000. Does this mean a return to the strategy of defensive instruments? Financial expert Chaslau Koniukh explains.

Rising global tensions have made gold again attractive . In particular , conflicts in the Middle East , risks of escalation between Israel and Iran and aggressive US foreign economic policy have caused a surge in demand for ” safe havens ” . The introduction of 145 % US tariffs on Chinese goods has caused Beijing’s symmetrical response . “When political uncertainty increases , institutional players prefer gold as an asset outside of jurisdictions , ” notes financial analyst Chaslau Koniukh.

Gold prices were given an additional boost by signals of a potential rate cut . After Donald Trump criticized the Fed Chairman , the market began to price in the possibility reduction of the key rate already in the second half of 2025. Jerome Powell acknowledged that the US economy is showing signs of slowing down , which has supported interest in hard assets . “Gold has historically benefited in conditions of real negative rates . If rates fall against the backdrop of inflation , this is ideal ground for a continued rally , ” explains Koniukh.

JP Morgan analysts predict that the price of gold will average stay around $3000 until the end of the year .

Central banks are buying : the trend continues

Data from the World Gold Council shows that central banks have been buying more than 1,000 tonnes of gold a year for the third year in a row . The People’s Bank of China remains the leader in 2025 , resumed purchases in November 2024. This creates sustainable fundamental support for demand .

Cumulative purchases in the first quarter of 2025 reached $15.3 billion , according to the World Gold Council, an all-time record . This demonstrates deep confidence in gold as a strategic asset in global reserve portfolios . The dollar’s 5% decline since the beginning of the year has been another factor supporting the gold market . Since gold is denominated in dollars , the depreciation makes it more attractive to non-residents .

Gold-backed exchange-traded funds ( ETFs ) saw record inflows in the first quarter . Analysts note a statistical correlation between the VIX volatility index and flows into gold – at 0.78. Against the backdrop of falling stock indices (the S&P 500 lost 12% in the week after Trump’s statements ), gold maintained its steady growth . This strengthened its status as a hedge against recession .

Is there room for growth ?

Despite the impressive jump , many experts believe that gold has not yet reached its upper limit . According to Gregory Shearer of JP Morgan, further political intervention in US monetary policy could only accelerate the flight of investors to “hard assets” . Some technical analysts point to $40,000 as the next target if the current consolidation level is broken .

Institutional investors are also playing a significant role : at least three new physical gold ETFs are expected to launch in the second quarter, according to Bloomberg. This means that demand will grow regardless of the behavior of the retail segment .

However, some markets are showing signs of cooling : in India, jewelry sales fell by 18% due to sky-high prices . However, this is more of a local effect . In China , by contrast , demand for gold jewelry has remained stable , as gold is increasingly perceived as a form of investment .

In an environment of increasing volatility and unpredictable government actions , gold has once again proven its ability to be a universal “insurance policy . ” For investors, this means having a share of physical gold or ETFs in your portfolio, regardless of the stage of the market .

Financial analyst Chaslau Koniukh advises : “An investor must think in terms of sustainability . Gold is not speculation , it is trust in long cycles . Those who entered in 2022-2023 are now reaping the benefits of strategic patience . ”

At the same time, Koniukh advises not to exceed the share of gold in the investment portfolio more than 20-25%, since even the most reliable assets are not without risks . Especially in the phase of an overheated market .

Will gold withstand market pressure ? The coming weeks will provide an answer to this question . The key risk for gold now is a potential strengthening of the dollar or a de-escalation of global trade conflicts . If the US and China find a new format for cooperation , and investors return to risky assets , growth may slow down .

However, gold has already proven its resilience to such changes . It has demonstrated its ability to grow even against the backdrop of rising bond yields and unexpected decisions by central banks . The market , which has survived several phases of shock , has proven flexible enough to absorb both geopolitical instability and monetary challenges .

Financial analyst Chaslau Koniukh believes that in this sense , gold is not just a safe haven – it is an indicator of trust in the system . Or , more precisely , its deficit .

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